Original MyFavi guides
The Best Time to Buy a Car in 2026: Why Late November to January Is the Cheapest Window
December is historically the cheapest month for a new car, and January is the best for a used one. The dates, the data, and a timing worksheet.
December discounts have deepened three years in a row — 3.1%, then 4.2%, then 4.7% off MSRP. The question isn’t whether December is cheapest. It’s whether the car you want will still be there.
Edmunds transaction data shows December has historically carried the highest discounts off MSRP of any month, deepening from 3.1% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025. On the used side, iSeeCars analyzed over 40 million used-car sales from 2024 through October 2025 and found January offers 55.6% more deals than an average month. Today is November 9: Black Friday is 18 days away, and the year-end window is seven weeks out. This guide gives you the dates, the honest limits of the data, and a worksheet to time your purchase.
The number to remember: December’s 4.7% average discount is about $2,340 off a $49,766 car — the October 2026 average transaction price (Kelley Blue Book / Cox Automotive).
When is the best time to buy a new car?
December — and specifically the last days of December. Three clocks expire at once: the monthly target, the quarterly target, and the annual target. Dealers who are short of their yearly numbers have the most reason to deal, and manufacturers typically run their richest year-end incentive programs in the same weeks. Edmunds' data through September 2026 shows the pattern holding: December discounts were the deepest in each of the last three years, and Edmunds analysts expect discounts at the end of 2026 to be more generous still — a forecast, not a promise.
One honest caveat: Edmunds also notes that since the pandemic, no seasonal trend has held up perfectly. Discounts ran at a fairly consistent level through most of 2026 rather than spiking only at year-end. Treat December as a tailwind, not a guarantee — and never let a calendar date talk you into a car that is over your budget.
What December is worth in dollars: a 4.7% discount — the 2025 December average — is about $2,340 off a $49,766 car (the October 2026 average transaction price, Kelley Blue Book / Cox Automotive). That is real money, but it is not a reason to buy a car you cannot afford every month. Set your ceiling first in MyFavi's affordability calculator, then let the calendar improve the price.
When is the best time to buy a used car?
Winter — and January most of all. Used cars carry no factory rebates and no dealer quotas, so the pattern is driven by buyers, not by sales targets: fewer people shop for cars in cold weather, and prices follow the temperature down. iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer puts it plainly: "used car prices follow the average temperature, with both falling between November and March and bottoming out between December 31 and February 28."
The iSeeCars ranking, by how many more deals each month offers than an average month:
- January: 55.6% more deals — the best month of the year
- February: 36.2% more deals
- December: 15.2% more deals
- November: 5.8% more deals
- October: 2.1% more deals
Edmunds reaches a similar conclusion from its own sales data, naming November the best month to buy a used car, with October close behind — the two months when model-year clearance and trade-ins overlap. Either way, the message is the same: the window that opens now runs through February.
What counts as a "deal" in the iSeeCars study matters: a car listed at least 10% below its estimated fair market value — about $2,689 off the $26,889 average used-car price. The percentages above measure how much more likely you are to find such a deal, not how much prices fall. The average chance of finding a deal on any given day is 13.7%; in January it is far higher.
What are the best days of the year to buy a used car?
Holidays cluster at the top of the iSeeCars ranking, and the two best are in the winter:
- Martin Luther King Jr. Day: 65.5% more deals — the single best day of the year
- New Year's Eve and New Year's Day: 58.6% more deals
- Presidents' Day: 47.0% more deals
- Veterans Day: 23.1% more deals
- Christmas Eve: 15.2% more deals
- Thanksgiving / Black Friday: 9.5% more deals
The pattern holds because the same two forces stack: cold weather keeps casual shoppers home, and dealers and private sellers alike want the year closed out. If you can shop on a quiet holiday, you are shopping when the fewest other buyers are competing with you.
Is Black Friday actually a good time to buy a car?
Yes for used cars, modestly — and be skeptical for new ones. Thanksgiving and Black Friday run 9.5% more used-car deals than an average day (iSeeCars), which makes the weekend worth shopping if you are buying used. But there is no Black Friday price cut on new cars the way there is on televisions. What dealers call a Black Friday sale is usually the manufacturer's year-end incentive program with a holiday banner on it — real money, but the same money that will still be there in December, often richer.
Two rules for the weekend of November 27–30:
- Compare the written out-the-door price — sale price plus taxes, title and registration, dealer fees, and add-ons — across dealers, not the advertised price on the banner.
- Do not let a "today only" deadline rush you past the checks that matter: a VIN recall check, a pre-purchase inspection on any used car, and financing compared on APR, term, and total interest — not on the monthly payment alone. Use the payment calculator to see what the same loan costs at 60, 72, and 84 months before you sign.
iSeeCars' warning applies beyond Black Friday: "If you're seeing announcements about 'special offers' between Memorial Day and Labor Day, be skeptical and do your own research to compare an advertised car's price versus its market value."
What are the worst times to buy a car?
Summer. The same iSeeCars study ranks the worst months and holidays for finding a used-car deal:
- June: 22.8% fewer deals — the worst month of the year
- July 4th: 22.4% fewer deals — the worst holiday
- May: 22.2% fewer deals; July: 22.1% fewer deals
Warm weather brings out buyers, and dealers know it. February through April can also work against you on the used side: tax-refund season puts cash in buyers' pockets and lifts demand for cheaper cars. If your current car dies in June, you can still find a good deal — Brauer's advice is that you will just have to work harder and confirm true market pricing before you buy. The calendar is a tailwind, not a wall.
How much can timing actually save?
Two honest numbers, and one warning about what they do not mean:
| December | Discount off MSRP |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.1% |
| 2024 | 4.2% |
| 2025 | 4.7% |
Edmunds transaction data; December has had the highest discounts off MSRP of any month in each of the last three years.
| Month | More deals than an average month |
|---|---|
| January | 55.6% |
| February | 36.2% |
| December | 15.2% |
| November | 5.8% |
| October | 2.1% |
iSeeCars analysis of over 40 million used-car sales, 2024 through October 2025. A 'deal' means a car listed at least 10% below its estimated fair market value.
The warning: deal availability is not a price cut. A month with 55.6% more deals does not mean used cars cost 55.6% less in January — it means far more listings are priced well below market. You still have to find them, verify them, and negotiate. Timing improves your odds; it does not do the work for you.
Should I wait until December — or buy now?
Ask three questions:
- Do I need a car now? If your current car is unsafe or the repair bill exceeds its value, waiting costs more than it saves. Buy now, and negotiate hard anyway.
- Is the car I want scarce? Inventory is not evenly spread. Cox Automotive counted 2.80 million new vehicles on dealer lots at the end of September 2026 — 82 days of supply overall — but cars priced $30,000 or less sat at just 63 days of supply, while cars over $80,000 sat at 111 days. If you want an affordable car, the exact one you want may be gone by December. If you want a pricier one, waiting costs you little.
- Am I buying new or used? The December effect is strongest for new cars, where quotas and incentives stack. For used cars, the window is wider — November through February — so waiting a few weeks matters less than finding the right car at the right price.
If you can wait and you are flexible on the exact car, wait: do your research in November, know your ceiling and your target price, and shop the last week of December. If you need a car now, shop now — and use the same preparation, because a prepared buyer in November still beats an unprepared buyer in December.
Does timing help when buying privately?
Yes — the same winter window applies, and private buyers need it more. A private seller has no quota to hit, but they face the same cold-weather market: fewer buyers, more listings sitting, and more room to negotiate. The used-car deal-availability peak from November through February covers private-party listings on Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist just as it covers dealer lots.
Timing does not replace verification. Before money changes hands on a private purchase — in any month — check the title status (clean, lien still owed, or not in the seller's name), match the VIN in three places and run it through a history and recall check, get an independent pre-purchase inspection, and pay only through a verified, traceable method — never cash or a wire, and never on the strength of a payment screenshot. Our used-car buying checklist for Virginia, Maryland, and DC walks through every step in order, and our scams guide covers the fake-listing and fake-payment traps to watch for.
Pro tip: Amazon Autos is worth checking as one more price reference while you shop. It lists new, used, and certified pre-owned cars from over 1,000 participating dealers in more than 130 U.S. cities, with upfront, itemized pricing — vehicle price, taxes, fees, and add-ons shown before you commit — and every used or certified purchase comes with a minimum 3-day/300-mile return policy (Amazon, August 2026; return terms can vary by state). Use its itemized breakdown to compare against any dealer's written out-the-door price.
Best time to buy worksheet
Work through this before you shop, with your own numbers.
Step 1 — Decide new or used, and your window
- New or used (or either)
- My target buy date — and the latest date I can wait until
- The model and trim I want, and one acceptable alternative
- Benchmarks: December is historically the cheapest month for new cars (4.7% off MSRP in December 2025, Edmunds); January is the best month for used cars (55.6% more deals, iSeeCars)
Step 2 — Set the ceiling before the calendar
- My total monthly ceiling (payment + insurance + fuel)
- My price ceiling — the most I will pay before taxes and fees
- The most I will finance
- The longest loan term I will accept
- Benchmarks: average new-car transaction price $49,766 (October 2026, KBB/Cox); average new-car payment $787/month (Edmunds, Q3 2026). Test your ceiling in MyFavi's affordability calculator and payment calculator.
Step 3 — Check scarcity for the car I want
- Is my target car priced $30,000 or less? (63 days of supply in September 2026 — these move fastest)
- How many are listed within 50 miles of me right now?
- If there are only one or two, I will shop now rather than wait for December
Step 4 — Price the wait
- The discount I expect from waiting (about 4.7% on a new car in December; better odds of a 10%-below-market deal on a used car in January)
- What waiting costs me (repairs on my current car, rental or rideshare, lost use)
- My decision: wait until ___ / buy now because ___
My ceiling: __________ My target buy date: __________ The car that fits: __________
Before you buy timing checklist
Check these in order — before you pay, before you sign.
- Set the budget first. I wrote down my total monthly ceiling and my price ceiling before shopping. I tested them in MyFavi's affordability calculator and payment calculator.
- Pick the window. I know whether December (new) or January (used) is my target, and I know the latest date I can wait until. I am not letting a holiday banner rush me.
- Compare like for like. Same model year, trim, options, and powertrain across dealers in my region. I got a written out-the-door price — not just the advertised price — from every dealer I compare.
- Check scarcity. I counted how many of the car I want are actually available near me, and I know whether waiting risks losing the one I want.
- Check the car itself. I checked the VIN for recalls before buying. I got a pre-purchase inspection (used or nearly-new) or confirmed the new car's warranty terms. I got the vehicle history report for any used car. I confirmed the title is clean and the seller is the titled owner.
- Check the total before signing. I added up the total price including all fees — the out-the-door number, not the sticker. I compared financing on APR, term, amount financed, total interest, and total of payments. The price is at or under my ceiling — if it's not, I walk away or go smaller; I don't stretch the loan.
Save money on your next car — get notified on deals, price drops, and buying hacks, once a week.
Sources: iSeeCars, "The 10 Best and 10 Worst Times to Buy a Used Car," analysis of over 40 million used-car sales, 2024 through October 2025; Edmunds, "When Is the Best Time to Buy a New Car?", updated October 2026; Cox Automotive, September 2026 new-vehicle inventory; Kelley Blue Book / Cox Automotive, October 2026 average transaction prices; Edmunds Q3 2026; Amazon, "Amazon Autos: How to buy a car with Amazon," August 2026. Prices, rates, and incentives change — verify the current terms at the source before you buy.