The U.S. Energy Information Administration now forecasts that regular gasoline will average $3.91 per gallon nationwide in 2026. That is seven cents higher than the $3.84 annual average in its September outlook.
EIA also raised its 2027 regular-gasoline forecast to $3.56 per gallon from $3.35 in September. For diesel, it raised the 2026 forecast to $5.19 from $5.07 and the 2027 forecast to $4.49 from $4.40. These are annual national forecasts, not predictions for a particular week, region, or station.
The forecast uses market information through October 1
EIA's October outlook reflects market information available when the forecast was completed on October 1. It incorporates the September 29 announcement that the United States would release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but EIA says subsequent market developments were not included.
The agency raised its 2026 and 2027 Brent crude forecasts to $96 and $84 per barrel, respectively. Crude oil, wholesale fuel, and retail pump prices are different measures, and each can move after a forecast is finalized.
September pump prices were above the annual forecast
EIA estimates regular gasoline averaged $4.35 per gallon in September, while diesel averaged $6.29. The agency expects October gasoline to remain around the September level and diesel to stay above $6 during October before declining gradually.
A monthly observation and an annual forecast answer different questions. Local prices can also differ materially because of taxes, fuel specifications, distribution costs, and station-level pricing.
How buyers and owners can use the revised forecast
Use the national outlook as one input when comparing vehicles, not as the fuel price in a final budget. A simple estimate is expected annual miles divided by the vehicle's miles per gallon, multiplied by a realistic local fuel price.
Compare official fuel-economy estimates for the exact model and powertrain.
Check current local gasoline prices and test more than one price scenario.
Add insurance, maintenance, registration, financing, and depreciation before comparing total ownership costs.
Primary references
Sources and methodology
MyFavi links to the original material so you can verify the details, reporting period, and later updates.
Energy prices and forecasts can change quickly. This article summarizes a national EIA forecast and is not a guarantee of future fuel costs for any vehicle or location.
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