EIA expects U.S. gasoline prices to ease through year-end

What the July forecast says

The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that regular gasoline will average $3.80 per gallon nationwide in the third quarter of 2026. That would be lower than the second-quarter average of more than $4.20 per gallon.

EIA expects the national quarterly average to move to about $3.40 in the fourth quarter as crude-oil prices and retail margins ease. Its forecast places the 2027 annual average below $3.10 per gallon.

What changed from the prior outlook

The July outlook lowers EIA's forecast for the 2026 annual average to $3.64 per gallon from $3.90 in its June outlook. It also lowers the 2027 forecast to $3.09 from $3.64. EIA identifies increasing oil supply and restored trade flows as important reasons for the revision.

The figures for future quarters and years are forecasts. EIA updates the outlook as supply, demand, inventories, and other market conditions change.

How buyers can use the forecast

Use the national outlook as one input when comparing vehicles, not as the fuel price in a final budget. A simple estimate is expected annual miles divided by the vehicle's miles per gallon, multiplied by a realistic local fuel price.

• Compare official fuel-economy estimates for the exact model and powertrain.
• Check current local gasoline prices and test more than one price scenario.
• Add insurance, maintenance, registration, financing, and depreciation before comparing total ownership costs.

What sellers should communicate

Describe the vehicle's official fuel-economy rating and documented maintenance accurately. Avoid promising a buyer a particular fuel bill or using a national forecast as if it were a local price guarantee.