New-car payments forecast to reach an October record of $823

What the October forecast measures

J.D. Power and GlobalData published the forecast on October 22 using proprietary market data available during the month. They project 1,327,100 total new-vehicle sales for October, including retail and non-retail transactions, and a 15.6 million seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate, the same pace as October 2025.

Total sales are forecast to rise 0.2% from October 2025 after selling-day adjustment and 3.9% without that adjustment. October has one more selling day than a year ago, so the two comparisons answer different questions.

The figures are projections, not final October sales results. The forecast separately puts retail sales at 1,109,500, down 1.4% after selling-day adjustment but up 2.3% without that adjustment; total sales include non-retail transactions.

Payments rise despite a slightly lower projected transaction price

J.D. Power expects the average new-vehicle transaction price to reach $46,329, 0.1% below October 2025. Its projected average rate on new-vehicle loans is 6.81%, 19 basis points higher than a year earlier and the highest October reading since 2023, while the average monthly finance payment is forecast at $823, up 2.6% and the highest October reading in the source's series.

The source estimates that 29.6% of new-vehicle trade-ins carry negative equity, up 0.6 percentage points from a year earlier, and that 13.3% of financed sales use terms of at least 84 months, up 0.9 percentage points. A longer term can reduce the monthly bill while increasing total interest and the time it takes to build equity.

Incentives rose, with a wide powertrain gap

Average manufacturer incentive spending is projected at $3,304 per vehicle, up 13.1% from October 2025. Incentives as a share of average MSRP are forecast at 6.3%, up 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier.

The forecast puts incentives for internal-combustion and hybrid vehicles at $3,142 per unit, up 17.5% year over year, while estimated EV incentives fall 42% to $7,531. Those industry averages do not establish the discount on a specific model, trim, or vehicle in local inventory.

How buyers and sellers can use the snapshot

• Compare the out-the-door price, APR, term, total amount financed, and total of payments instead of choosing by monthly payment alone.
• Get a current payoff quote before trading a financed vehicle and compare it with more than one written trade-in estimate.
• Ask which incentives apply to the exact VIN and whether accepting a rebate changes the available financing rate.
• Treat the forecast as market context; actual offers depend on the vehicle, lender, credit profile, down payment, location, and timing.