New-car payments forecast to hit an August record of $812

What the August forecast measures

J.D. Power and GlobalData published the forecast on August 21 using proprietary market data available during the month. They projected 1,347,600 total new-vehicle sales for August, including retail and non-retail transactions, and a 16.4 million seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate.

Total sales were forecast to fall 4.8% from August 2025 after selling-day adjustment and 8.4% without that adjustment. J.D. Power says the year-over-year comparison is also distorted because the Labor Day weekend fell in the August reporting period last year and expiring federal EV credits pulled some purchases into August 2025.

The figures are projections, not final August sales results. The forecast separately puts retail sales at 1,142,700, down 6.9% after selling-day adjustment and 10.3% without it; total sales include non-retail transactions.

A lower projected rate did not prevent a record August payment

J.D. Power expects the average new-vehicle transaction price to reach $45,563, 2% above August 2025. Its projected average rate on new-vehicle loans is 6.55%, six basis points lower than a year earlier and the lowest August reading since 2022, but the average monthly finance payment is forecast at $812, up 3.7% and the highest August reading in the source's series.

The source estimates that 28.8% of new-vehicle trade-ins carry negative equity, up 0.6 percentage points from a year earlier, and that 13.9% of financed sales use terms of at least 84 months. A longer term can reduce the monthly bill while increasing total interest and the time it takes to build equity.

The Federal Reserve's separate August 7 G.19 release reports common May APRs of 7.14% for 60-month and 6.97% for 72-month new-car loans at reporting commercial banks. Those observed bank averages cover an earlier period and a different sample than J.D. Power's August forecast, so the figures should not be treated as interchangeable offers.

Incentives rose, with a wide powertrain gap

Average manufacturer incentive spending is projected at $3,384 per vehicle, up 5.9% from August 2025. Incentives as a share of average MSRP are forecast at 6.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from a year earlier.

The forecast puts incentives for internal-combustion and hybrid vehicles at $3,140 per unit, up 26.2% year over year, while estimated EV incentives fall 19.9% to $9,228. Those industry averages do not establish the discount on a specific model, trim, or vehicle in local inventory.

How buyers and sellers can use the snapshot

• Compare the out-the-door price, APR, term, total amount financed, and total of payments instead of choosing by monthly payment alone.
• Get a current payoff quote before trading a financed vehicle and compare it with more than one written trade-in estimate.
• Ask which incentives apply to the exact VIN and whether accepting a rebate changes the available financing rate.
• Treat the forecast as market context; actual offers depend on the vehicle, lender, credit profile, down payment, location, and timing.