J.D. Power: July new-car payments forecast at $808 as incentives rise

What the July forecast measures

J.D. Power and GlobalData published the forecast on July 24 using proprietary market data available during the month. They projected 1,415,800 total new-vehicle sales for July, including retail and non-retail transactions, and a 16.9 million seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate. Both July 2026 and July 2025 had 26 selling days, so the year-over-year volume comparison does not reflect a selling-day-count difference.

The figures are projections, not final July sales results. The forecast also separates a 1,193,500 retail-sales projection from total sales, which include non-retail transactions.

Lower projected rates did not prevent a higher payment

J.D. Power expected the average new-vehicle transaction price to reach $45,369, 1.2% above July 2025. Its projected average rate on new-vehicle loans was 6.54%, seven basis points lower than a year earlier, but the average monthly finance payment was forecast at $808, up 3.3% and the highest July reading in the source's series.

The source also estimated that 29.4% of new-vehicle trade-ins carried negative equity, up 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, and that 13.8% of financed sales used terms of at least 84 months. A longer term can reduce the monthly bill while increasing total interest and the time it takes to build equity.

Incentives rose, with a wide powertrain gap

Average manufacturer incentive spending was projected at $3,451 per vehicle, or 6.7% of MSRP. J.D. Power estimated that as an 8.1% increase from July 2025.

The forecast put incentives for internal-combustion and hybrid vehicles at $3,181 per unit, up 22.2% year over year, while estimated EV incentives fell 7% to $10,092. Those industry averages do not establish the discount on a specific model, trim, or vehicle in local inventory.

How buyers and sellers can use the snapshot

• Compare the out-the-door price, APR, term, total amount financed, and total of payments instead of choosing by monthly payment alone.
• Get a current payoff quote before trading a financed vehicle and compare it with more than one written trade-in estimate.
• Ask which incentives apply to the exact VIN and whether accepting a rebate changes the available financing rate.
• Treat the forecast as market context; actual offers depend on the vehicle, lender, credit profile, down payment, location, and timing.