Cox: New-vehicle affordability slipped in June as payments rose

What Cox's June affordability measure shows

Cox Automotive's July 15 release says its Vehicle Affordability Index, produced with Moody's Analytics, rose to 35.3 weeks of median income in June from a revised 35.2 weeks in May. A higher number means the model estimates that the average new vehicle required more income to purchase.

Cox estimates that the typical monthly payment increased 0.7% to $763. Its model uses a 72-month fixed-rate loan, an estimated average loan rate of 9.58%, and a Kelley Blue Book estimated average transaction price of $49,758. Those inputs and the resulting payment are industry estimates, not observed terms for every sale.

Monthly affordability slipped, but remained better than a year earlier

Cox attributes the small month-over-month decline in affordability to slightly higher vehicle prices and loan rates, along with slightly lower incentives, which outweighed income growth. Its estimated weeks-of-income measure was still 3.4% lower than a year earlier because income was higher and estimated loan rates were lower than in June 2025.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a separate price-change measure. Its June Consumer Price Index shows new-vehicle prices were unchanged from May after seasonal adjustment and 0.5% higher than a year earlier. That index does not measure an average vehicle price, payment, or loan approval and should not be substituted for Cox's affordability model.

How buyers can test affordability for themselves

• Set a maximum out-the-door price before discussing monthly payments.
• Request written offers for the same amount and term from more than one lender.
• Compare APR, total interest, amount financed, total of payments, and optional products.
• Add insurance, taxes, registration, fuel or charging, maintenance, and expected repairs to the monthly budget.

What sellers should take from the index

A national affordability measure can help explain broad shopping conditions, but it does not set the value of a particular vehicle. Price from current local comparables and documented condition, and avoid promising that a buyer will qualify for a specific payment, rate, or term.